पिछले 50 (61) सालों में हुआ हर युद्ध मीडिया द्वारा बोले गए झूठ का परिणाम है.
– जूलियन असांजे
यूक्रेन लफड़े के लिए यूक्रेन का लम्पट अमेरिकी टट्टू कॉमेडियन राष्ट्रपति और अमेरिका का युद्ध पिपासु राष्ट्रपति जिम्मेदार है. कोई भी जिम्मेदार पारिवारिक व्यक्ति (पुतिन) अपने पड़ोस में किसी कुख्यात गुंडे (नाटो) के प्लानिंग (यूक्रेन का राष्ट्रपति) के तहत बसने की बात पता चलने पर शांत नहीं बैठ सकता. जो बंधु, बांधव युद्ध के खिलाफ हैं, वे फालतू के प्रवचन देना बन्द करके लोकतांत्रिक व स्वतंत्र व्यक्तित्व के शासकों को चुनने में मदद करें. लम्पट, ज़ाहिल चुनोगे तो वह एक या दूसरे विश्व वर्चस्ववादी का मोहरा बन युद्ध के मैदानों की संख्या बढ़ाने में ही मदद करेगा.
– जार्ज ओरवेल
रुस जो भूतपूर्व सोवियत संघ था, के द्वारा यूक्रेन (जो भूतपूर्व सोवियत संघ का हिस्सा था) पर हमला किये जाने पर भारत समेत तमाम गोदी मीडिया और उसके पैरोकार जो छाती पीट रहे हैं, दरअसल वे अमेरिकी दमनकारी नीति का जबर्दस्त पैरोकार हैं. असलियत में वह यह चाहते हैं कि अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद रुस को भी इराक, अफगानिस्तान की तरह नष्ट कर दें.
अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद ने युगोस्लाविया के बारे में झूठ बोला और उसपर हमला कर दिया. अफगानिस्तान के बारे में झूठ बोला, इराक के बारे में झूठ बोला. लीबिया के बारे में झूठ बोला, कोरिया, वियतनाम मसले फर झूठ बोला और उसे मिट्टी में मिला दिया. लाखों लोगों का हत्यारा अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद अब रुस के बारे में झूठ बोल रहा है. वे अब आपसे झूठ बोल रहे हैं.
नीचे फ़ोटो में देखिए अमेरिका, जर्मनी द्वारा स्पांसर्ड यूक्रेन में कठपुतली लोकतंत्र के स्थापना कार्यक्रम, 2014 की कुछ झलकियां, जिसमें अब तक कई हज़ार नागरिक जान से हाथ धो बैठे हैं और लाखों विस्थापित जीवन बिता रहे हैं, उसकी तुलना में रुस ने यूक्रेन में कूछ भी नहीं किया है.
अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद सोवियत संघ के स्थापनाकाल.से ही सोवियत संघ के खिलाफ एक से बढ़कर एक कुचक्र को अंजाम देता रहा है, कॉ. स्टालिन की मौत के बाद अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद के इशारों पर नाचते संशोधनवादी सोवियत संघ का पतन 1991 में हो गया, जिसका मुख्य कारण भी यही अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद था.
जब उसका मन सोवियत संघ के पतन से भी नहीं भरा तब उसने सोवियत संघ से अलग हुए देशों में एक-एक कर कठपुतली सरकार बनाना शुरु कर दिया और अपने गुंडे गिरोह (नोटो) में शामिल कर अब रुस को भी अंदर से खत्म करने की साजिश में भिड़ गया और रुस की सीमा से सटा यूक्रेन में हजारों रुसी समर्थकों का कत्ल कर एक कठपुतली शासक को स्थापित कर दिया ताकि वहां भी नाटो के गुंडों की तैनाती कर सकने का कुचक्र शुरू कर दिया.
अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद युद्ध क्यों करता है इसका सच युद्ध के पैरोकारों का मीडिया वाशिंगटन पोस्ट ने खुद उगल दिया, ‘युद्ध हमें अमीर, सुरक्षित (और तुम्हें वंचित व कमजोर) बनाये रखने के लिए ‘करना पड़ता’ है. सनद रहे कि इराक युद्ध भी वाशिंगटन पोस्ट द्वारा इराक पर डब्ल्यूएमडी के जखीरे होने का झूठे प्रोपगेंडा से शुरू हुआ था जिसमें तत्कालीन उपराष्ट्रपति डिक चेनी की कंपनी Halliburton को 39.5 बिलियन डॉलर का आर्डर मिला था.
यूक्रेन में रूस को अपने गुंडों (नाटो) द्वारा घेरने की कार्रवाई अमेरिकी साम्राज्यवाद के नेतृत्व में साम्राज्यवादी ताकतें लम्बे समय से कर रही थी. यही कारण है कि रुसी राष्ट्रपति पुतिन ने यूक्रेन के खिलाफ युद्ध छेडऩे से बाद कहा था कि रुस को यह युद्ध काफी पहले ही शुरू कर देना चाहिए था.
ग्लोबल इंटेलिजेंस फाइल्स, टेक्सास मुख्यालय ‘ग्लोबल इंटेलिजेंस’ कंपनी स्ट्रैटफ़ोर से पांच मिलियन से अधिक ई-मेल. जुलाई 2004 और दिसंबर 2011 के बीच ई-मेल की तारीख में भेजे गये थे. वे एक कंपनी के आंतरिक कामकाज को प्रकट करते हैं जो एक खुफिया प्रकाशक के रूप में सामने आती है, लेकिन भोपाल की डॉव केमिकल कंपनी, लॉकहीड मार्टिन, नॉर्थ्रॉप ग्रुम्मन जैसे बड़े निगमों को गोपनीय खुफिया सेवाएं प्रदान करती है. रेथियॉन और सरकारी एजेंसियां, जिनमें यूएस डिपार्टमेंट ऑफ होमलैंड सिक्योरिटी, यूएस मरीन और यूएस डिफेंस इंटेलिजेंस एजेंसी शामिल हैं. ई-मेल स्ट्रैटफ़ोर के मुखबिरों के वेब, पे-ऑफ़ संरचना, भुगतान लॉन्ड्रिंग तकनीकों और मनोवैज्ञानिक तरीकों को दिखाते हैं.
अमेरिकी वेबसाइट विकीलीक्स ने यूक्रेन के माध्यम से रुस में सेंधमारी से जुड़े 50 ई-मेल प्रकाशित किया है. इस 50 ई-मेल को हम अपने पाठकों के लिए प्रस्तुत कर रहे हैं साथ ही बांकी के मेल का लिंक हम यहां दे रहे हैं, जैसा कि उपर बताया गया है यह मेल जुलाई 2004 से दिसंबर 2011 के बीच भेजे गये थे.
| Doc # | Date | Subject | From | To | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5498501 | 2009-06-01 15:55:33 | INSIGHT – UKRAINE – Timo-Yanu colaition deal |
goodrich@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – UKRAINE – Timo-Yanu colaition deal CODE:UA104 & 103 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: 104 – Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party; 103 – Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yushchenko’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren Just got off phone with my sources on the Timo-Yanu coalition, here is the coalition deal… Both are worried about these new political leaders coming in, like Yatsenuk. So if this coalition deal can be formalized, then Timo and Yanu are planning on trying to pass a law that would elect the next prez from parliament, which would essentially create a 2 party system in Ukraine– killing the chances of all the other parties. On the good side, this could actually lead to some political stability inside of Ukraine. Russia is strongly backing this deal, naturally. But there are so many issues with this plan. First, neither personali |
|||||||
| 5522156 | 2009-11-07 19:07:53 | INSIGHT – UKRAINE – little internal politicking before elections |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – UKRAINE – little internal politicking before elections CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: medium-high ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenYou’ll notice that Yanukovich is first in the polls, but has been very quiet recently. He is letting Tymoshenko and Yushchenko beat each other down. Tymoshenko is blaming the economic crisis and natural gas issues on Yushchenko. While Yushchenko is preventing payments for natural gas to be made, hoping it will prove that Tymoshenko does not have an upper hand with the Russians as she claims. This is a weak choice of tactics because she can pull off a real deal when she meets Putin in a few weeks. Tymoshenko is also gaining momentum in the public sphere because of her hands on approach to H1N1 in Ukraine, which is a top tier topic. Yanukovich’s election brain center is |
|||||||
| 5461425 | 2009-05-21 20:25:24 | INSIGHT – UKRAINE – their Obama? *eye roll* |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – UKRAINE – their Obama? *eye roll* CODE:UA103 PUBLICATION: yes/background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yushchenko’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenYatseniuk is becoming the dealbreaker in the upcoming elections. It is as if everyone who doesn’t want Tymoshenko and doesn’t want to at least outwardly support Yanukovich is backing him. Especially Yushchenko’s lost followers and cadre have been looking for someone-anyone to stand behind. Even if Yatseniuk has his secret supporters, as long as he isn’t Yanukovich or Tymoshenko, then he’ll do for now.The rumor flying across the government and media is that Yuschenko has chosen former Yatseniuk as his successor. Yatseniuk has not responded to the rumors, which has also sparked the counter movement that he doesn’t want the failed president’s endorsement. The pro-US group here (especiall |
|||||||
| 5539976 | 2009-05-21 20:25:30 | INSIGHT – UKRAINE – Yatseniuk’s power base |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – UKRAINE – Yatseniuk’s power base CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: yes/background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenSome of the groups that have fallen behind the Yatseniuk phenomenon is Firtash and Pinchuk’s groups. It is obvious since Firtash has been showing up at every one of his events. Both are using their television stations (Pinchuk’s is ICTV, STB and Novyi Kanal and Firtash’s is Inter) to promote Yatseniuk. This resembles Pinchuk’s support for another TV project – the Winter Crop Generation party established for the 2002 elections and known as KOP.But Yatseniuk has weak leadership skills, as seen in his chairmanship of parliament. Big business backing of Yatseniuk is to a) prevent Tymoshenko’s election victory b) to ensure a president is in place who can be easily manipulated. Kuchma is a |
|||||||
| 5433839 | 2009-11-07 19:07:53 | [Eurasia] INSIGHT – UKRAINE – little internal politicking before elections |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| [Eurasia] INSIGHT – UKRAINE – little internal politicking before elections CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: medium-high ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenYou’ll notice that Yanukovich is first in the polls, but has been very quiet recently. He is letting Tymoshenko and Yushchenko beat each other down. Tymoshenko is blaming the economic crisis and natural gas issues on Yushchenko. While Yushchenko is preventing payments for natural gas to be made, hoping it will prove that Tymoshenko does not have an upper hand with the Russians as she claims. This is a weak choice of tactics because she can pull off a real deal when she meets Putin in a few weeks. Tymoshenko is also gaining momentum in the public sphere because of her hands on approach to H1N1 in Ukraine, which is a top tier topic. Yanukovich’s election brain |
|||||||
| 5471912 | 2009-02-25 13:04:46 | INSIGHT – UKRAINE – military nearly bankrupt |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – UKRAINE – military nearly bankrupt CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: yes/background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenTimes are tough for Ukraine’s military. In late January, Defense Minister Yekhanurov told me that the president repatriate the soldiers taking part in the UN’s peacekeeping missions in Liberia and Kosovo (300 and 180 soldiers respectively). The fact is that the finances allocated in the 2009 budget cover only the first two months of the year. Yushchenko nevertheless rejected the proposal and insisted that Prime Minister Timoshenko allocate the necessary means to the defense ministry. Meanwhile, it was reported in early February that electricity supplies were cut to 72 military facilities, including four airfields and eight anti-aircraft defense units, because of nonpayment. For the rec |
|||||||
| 5505012 | 2009-11-21 16:36:49 | INSIGHT – Putin’s United Russia Congress – on Ukraine |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – Putin’s United Russia Congress – on Ukraine At Russia’s United Russia Congress…. Yanukovich was at the speech. -There was a lot of chatter among the United Russia delegates that Yanukovich’s Party of Regions and United Russia could form a “union”….. this wording struck me. -I asked if such a “union” would be the predecessor to a Russia-Ukraine union (similar to what Belarus and Russia have currently)-this got some chuckles from the Russian Kremliners I was talking to, but no denials. Instead they said that it was just another step to solidifying Ukraine to Russia. -But this doesn’t mean that the Kremlin is only behind Yanukovich (who leads the polls in Ukraine). Putin stated yesterday after he left Yalta that “it is comfortable for Moscow to work with Timoshenko.”… -But Yanukovich’s presence at the speech and United Russia’s plans for Party of Regions is a clear sign that they have real technical plans beyond rhetoric should Yanukovich win the ele |
|||||||
| 5531284 | 2009-11-21 16:36:49 | [Eurasia] INSIGHT – Putin’s United Russia Congress – on Ukraine |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| [Eurasia] INSIGHT – Putin’s United Russia Congress – on Ukraine At Russia’s United Russia Congress…. Yanukovich was at the speech. -There was a lot of chatter among the United Russia delegates that Yanukovich’s Party of Regions and United Russia could form a “union”….. this wording struck me. -I asked if such a “union” would be the predecessor to a Russia-Ukraine union (similar to what Belarus and Russia have currently)-this got some chuckles from the Russian Kremliners I was talking to, but no denials. Instead they said that it was just another step to solidifying Ukraine to Russia. -But this doesn’t mean that the Kremlin is only behind Yanukovich (who leads the polls in Ukraine). Putin stated yesterday after he left Yalta that “it is comfortable for Moscow to work with Timoshenko.”… -But Yanukovich’s presence at the speech and United Russia’s plans for Party of Regions is a clear sign that they have real technical plans beyond rhetoric should Yanukovich w |
|||||||
| 5516563 | 2009-03-03 14:56:52 | INSIGHT – Regions’ pick for FM (rising Ukr star) |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – Regions’ pick for FM (rising Ukr star) CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: yes/background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenThe rumor is that Regions will push for Arseny Yatsenyuk as next FM. It is a strange proposals since Yanukovich was the one who wanted to sack Yatsenyuk back when he was Speaker of Rada. But there are quite a few things on the table about Yatsenyuk that Yanukovich is considering. The fact that Yatsenyuk is a star on the rise and could draw a lot of Timoshenko and Yushchenko (what’s left of it) support. Also, we have heard that Akhmetov has recently purchased the usually independent Yatsenyuk. Yanukovich knows that while his party is growing stronger (once again), that he is still kinda hated within his own party and in Ukraine, so starting to hedge bets with Yatsenyuk makes some longterm se |
|||||||
| 5539463 | 2009-03-03 14:58:25 | Re: INSIGHT – Regions’ pick for FM (rising Ukr star) |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – Regions’ pick for FM (rising Ukr star) man… if we put this info public, we’re going to be blasted by the Ukrainians. Us saying that their darling Yatsenyuk has been bought by Akhmentov… scandalous. Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE:UA104 PUBLICATION: yes/background ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Kiev SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Parliamentarian in Ukraine, part of Yanukovich’s party SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenThe rumor is that Regions will push for Arseny Yatsenyuk as next FM. It is a strange proposals since Yanukovich was the one who wanted to sack Yatsenyuk back when he was Speaker of Rada. But there are quite a few things on the table about Yatsenyuk that Yanukovich is considering. The fact that Yatsenyuk is a star on the rise and could draw a lot of Timoshenko and Yushchenko (what’s left of it) support. Also, we have heard that Akhmetov has recently purchased the |
|||||||
| 294244 | 2008-03-03 16:49:37 | RE: REMINDER – MATCH PROJECT DUE TOMORROW |
morson@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| RE: REMINDER – MATCH PROJECT DUE TOMORROW Natural gas is also important to the chemical industry. Forgot to include in the guidance. ———————————————————————- From: Kathleen Morson [mailto:morson@stratfor.com] Sent: Monday, March 03, 2008 10:46 AM To: secure@stratfor.com Subject: RE: REMINDER – MATCH PROJECT DUE TOMORROW Here’s my guidance on the industry trends/market conditions point again in case you missed it (I sent it out late last Wednesday): 1. issues concerning petroleum supply/price (as stated) — this is the biggest item to note, especially as it affects MNCs 2. nationaliziation of oil (anything that might make it harder for the chem company to get petroleum, which is their major input) 3. increasing regulation of chemicals/products or talk of increasing regulation (health and environmental concerns, or ways to block MNCs from selling things in your AOR) 4. increasing regulat |
|||||||
| 66179 | 2008-03-03 16:46:01 | RE: REMINDER – MATCH PROJECT DUE TOMORROW |
morson@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| RE: REMINDER – MATCH PROJECT DUE TOMORROW Here’s my guidance on the industry trends/market conditions point again in case you missed it (I sent it out late last Wednesday): 1. issues concerning petroleum supply/price (as stated) — this is the biggest item to note, especially as it affects MNCs 2. nationaliziation of oil (anything that might make it harder for the chem company to get petroleum, which is their major input) 3. increasing regulation of chemicals/products or talk of increasing regulation (health and environmental concerns, or ways to block MNCs from selling things in your AOR) 4. increasing regulation of industrial facilities or talk of increasing regulation (anything to make it harder for a facility to operate or for a new facility to be built) 5. product recalls and import/export issues of products (like the mattel fiasco in china last year) 6. overall treatment of MNCs in your AOR Just anything off the top of y |
|||||||
| 1048915 | 2010-11-29 21:00:36 | [Fwd: Army Investigative files] | burton@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| [Fwd: Army Investigative files]
** Of any interest? Offer from a very good investigative historical researcher contact/friend. Hi Fred, I’m headed to the National Archives mid-week. These are newly processed Army Investigative files from the 40s and 50s that will be opened to the public shortly but are not yet on the public shelfs. Let me know if anything POPS out. One of the files deals with the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem and contains an agreement with Nazi Germany. The Arab states took in alot of Nazis after the war. Please keep this list to yourself. files on Israeli Intelligence Collection Methods and Israeli Intelligence Service in Germany are still classified. I could get them opened. What do you think? the files are all Army CIC which operated post wwII TITLE LAST NAME FIRST NAME PREFIX NUMBER pages * Abakunov Victor D 270423 10 * Abdeslam Mohamed ben Ahmed ben D 229393 6 * Abdeslam Mohamed ben Ahmed ben D 229393 8 * Abetz Otto D 191918 9 * Abs Herman XE 010085 |
|||||||
| 299775 | 2008-02-28 02:15:27 | RE: CLIENT PROJECT – MUST READ |
morson@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| RE: CLIENT PROJECT – MUST READ Here’s some guidance on the industry trends/market conditions point: 1. issues concerning petroleum supply/price (as stated) — this is the biggest item to note, especially as it affects MNCs 2. nationaliziation of oil (anything that might make it harder for the chem company to get petroleum, which is their major input) 3. increasing regulation of chemicals/products or talk of increasing regulation (health and environmental concerns, or ways to block MNCs from selling things in your AOR) 4. increasing regulation of industrial facilities or talk of increasing regulation (anything to make it harder for a facility to operate or for a new facility to be built) 5. product recalls and import/export issues of products (like the mattel fiasco in china last year) 6. overall treatment of MNCs in your AOR———————————————————————- Fro |
|||||||
| 5457799 | 2008-02-28 01:46:04 | CLIENT PROJECT – MUST READ |
bhalla@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| CLIENT PROJECT – MUST READ Another MATCH fishing task that’s going to require input from the whole team. This one is due MARCH 4, at 1pm CST to Joe deFeo (cc me). No edit required.Stay tuned for more guidance on this as the project develops. Read the tasking order carefully.TASK:The client asked for BRIEF bullet points on current and potential risks facing the chemicals industry in general, any current or potential risks facing the following companies specifically: Formosa Plastics Corporation CMX Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Lyondell Rockwood Specialties Group, Inc. Chemtura Corporation ICC Industries Symrise Gen-TekThis is a large number of companies, and we will limit aspects of the research to keep this manageable for us and the client.Final product should include the following:1. Overview of current or potential threats facing the chemicals industry in general. (TO BE DONE BY PU |
|||||||
| 1674861 | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 | Re: INSIGHT – NATO – MAP, Russia |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | laura.jack@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – NATO – MAP, Russia What is the nationality of the source? —– Original Message —– From: “Laura Jack” <laura.jack@stratfor.com> To: “Secure List” <secure@stratfor.com> Sent: Monday, April 13, 2009 6:16:37 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia Subject: INSIGHT – NATO – MAP, Russia Publication: If desired Attribution: Stratfor sources at NATO Source description: Head of security at NATO HQ Source reliability: C (new & untested) Item credibility: 2 The MAP process for Georgia and Ukraine is completely dead, with this U.S. administration anyway. There is a feeling that adding Ukraine especially is like prodding a hornets nest with a stick in regard to Russia. The U.S. also believes that there are too many other crises right now (two wars, Iran, Pakistan, economic crisis) to worry too much about countries joining NATO whose accession would only provoke Russia even more. The joint NATO-Russia committee on terrorism is one of the only areas that is be |
|||||||
| 5478172 | 2009-09-29 23:38:48 | INSIGHT – POLAND: On EU-Polish Relations |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – POLAND: On EU-Polish Relations Another non-coded contact. This is the director of the EU program at the most prestigious Polish think tank for politics and policy Poles are pro-integration, but they are not very active in EU affairs. Participation in the election was second lowest in Europe, only 25 % voted in EP elections. We are currently looking to engage the public, particularly with the Presidency coming to us in 2011. Eastern Partnership: The Financial Crisis has of course dulled enthusiasm for this project. We are trying to engage the Germans and the Czech at the moment. We are also trying to create the “friends of EP”, particularly Canada. But of course nobody wants to put any money into it right now. The political part of EP is done, we need to concentrate now on the concrete steps. Part of the EP is to develop values and society, to transport values, to o to the society and explain why Europe is important, to engage with civil society. |
|||||||
| 378406 | 2009-12-03 05:05:14 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | rbaker@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com goodrich@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
i took original US copies over as gifts right after it was published. If I know the Chinese, they have already made a few hundred english language copies from these, too, for internal distribution… On Dec 2, 2009, at 9:52 PM, Meredith Friedman wrote: No there is a version already out that was published in Hong Kong which had no censureship as far as we know. The mainland China edition is the one that has parts removed and that’s not out yet to my knowledge. So they must have the Hong Kong published edition so they’re OK. Two separate publishers. ———————————————————————- From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com] Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 9:50 PM To: mefriedman@att.blackberry.net Cc: Nate Hughes; Jennifer Richmond; Marko Papic; secure@stratfor.com; george friedman; Meredith Friedman; zhixing.zhang; Antonia |
|||||||
| 378652 | 2009-12-03 04:52:14 | RE: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | mfriedman@stratfor.com | goodrich@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| RE: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
No there is a version already out that was published in Hong Kong which had no censureship as far as we know. The mainland China edition is the one that has parts removed and that’s not out yet to my knowledge. So they must have the Hong Kong published edition so they’re OK. Two separate publishers. ———————————————————————- From: Lauren Goodrich [mailto:goodrich@stratfor.com] Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 9:50 PM To: mefriedman@att.blackberry.net Cc: Nate Hughes; Jennifer Richmond; Marko Papic; secure@stratfor.com; george friedman; Meredith Friedman; zhixing.zhang; Antonia Colibasanu Subject: Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] Crap…. the Chinese version is censured?? I know a bunch of Russians that got their N100Y copy from China….. I’ll need to send them real copies then. Meredith Friedman wrote: |
|||||||
| 384315 | 2009-12-03 04:10:28 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | burton@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
Does this mean the U.S. womens gymnastics team may win the Olympics in 2030? Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T ———————————————————————- From: Nate Hughes <hughes@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:59:07 -0500 To: <mefriedman@att.blackberry.net> Cc: Jennifer Richmond<richmond@stratfor.com>; Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<george.friedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>; zhixing.zhang<zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com>; Antonia Colibasanu<colibasanu@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] I’m imagining its essentially everything related to China. So China has removed a particularly clearly articulated warning about its current trajectory utterly, depriving its leadership of any understanding of G’s prediction for the fate of t |
|||||||
| 5500146 | 2010-01-04 08:29:37 | INSIGHT – RUSSIA/BELARUS – oil dispute II |
goodrich@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – RUSSIA/BELARUS – oil dispute II CODE: RU132 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Kremlin SOURCE DESCRIPTION: One of Putin’s thinktankers, specializing in Russian-foreign affairs SOURCES RELIABILITY: medium-high ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenI do not know of any plans for a bigger shutdown of supplies to Belarus. However, should it happen, then it would be Minsk’s fault for escalating the situation. They are such annoying parasites.It is interesting that there really isn’t a dispute occurring this year with Ukraine as much as Yushchenko tries to push one.Russia can not afford a real dispute with Ukraine this year-as much as there is legal precedent for one. Literally there is no energy agreement between Russia and Ukraine at this moment, so one should expect an energy dispute moreso than the past 4 years.But not this year, for it would tip the scales in the polls. Everything is playing wel |
|||||||
| 377850 | 2009-12-03 03:52:28 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | mefriedman@att.blackberry.net | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
Yep- China just vanishes. I can show you the parts that are being removed if you’re interested. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Nate Hughes <hughes@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:45:07 -0500 To: <mefriedman@att.blackberry.net> Cc: Jennifer Richmond<richmond@stratfor.com>; Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<george.friedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>; zhixing.zhang<zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com>; Antonia Colibasanu<colibasanu@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] hahahaha. So the book just suddenly stops talking about China after 2030 with no explanation. Like we just forgot to mention it. I love censorship sometimes. Meredith Friedman wrote: What is mor |
|||||||
| 378288 | 2009-12-03 03:59:07 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | hughes@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
I’m imagining its essentially everything related to China. So China has removed a particularly clearly articulated warning about its current trajectory utterly, depriving its leadership of any understanding of G’s prediction for the fate of their country in the near future while trumping up a short passage about their perceived adversary that he book doesn’t really even address. awesome. Meredith Friedman wrote: Yep- China just vanishes. I can show you the parts that are being removed if you’re interested. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Nate Hughes <hughes@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:45:07 -0500 To: <mefriedman@att.blackberry.net> Cc: Jennifer Richmond<richmond@stratfor.com>; Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<geo |
|||||||
| 5435291 | 2009-12-03 04:49:31 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | goodrich@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
Crap…. the Chinese version is censured?? I know a bunch of Russians that got their N100Y copy from China….. I’ll need to send them real copies then. Meredith Friedman wrote: Yep- China just vanishes. I can show you the parts that are being removed if you’re interested. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Nate Hughes <hughes@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:45:07 -0500 To: <mefriedman@att.blackberry.net> Cc: Jennifer Richmond<richmond@stratfor.com>; Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com>; <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<george.friedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>; zhixing.zhang<zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com>; Antonia Colibasanu<colibasanu@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – |
|||||||
| 1674204 | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 | Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | goodrich@stratfor.com bokhari@stratfor.com reva.bhalla@stratfor.com kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran Oh yeah, they mean OUTSIDE of Iran… They are not in Iran. —– Original Message —– From: “Kamran Bokhari” <bokhari@stratfor.com> To: “Marko Papic” <marko.papic@stratfor.com>, “Lauren Goodrich” <goodrich@stratfor.com> Cc: “secure” <secure@stratfor.com>, “Kamran Bokhari” <kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com>, “Reva Bhalla” <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com> Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 8:30:19 AM GMT -05:00 Colombia Subject: RE: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran a**In other locationsa** means outside Iran? If so then they would have a heck of time getting in. If they are in country, then may god save them from the baseej.From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com] Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 8:29 AM To: Lauren Goodrich Cc: secure; Kamran Bokhari; Reva Bhalla Subject: Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On IranAs you can tell from the answer, they were very vague about it… “training Iranian dissidents ‘in other locations'”. Ver |
|||||||
| 5521289 | 2009-09-29 23:26:55 | INSIGHT – POLAND: View from the EU office |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – POLAND: View from the EU office Source again not coded… Will get to that soon. This guy works in the Polish EU Integration office. The EU Office is currently close to the foreign affairs, but it is not part of it. However, there is a plan to put it directly under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Minister Sikorski is pushing for it hard. It is in part a political decision, but it will also help because the office will have access to the information that Polish embassies around Europe have. Right now the office has to go through the ministry. Right now the 2011 Polish Presidency is the big issue. The contact geve me the just released list of Polish priorities for 2011. These are of course preliminary, but they are good in that they give us an overview of what the Poles think is important RIGHT NOW. 1. Integration of European Defense. This is fascinating. The contact assures me that this came up VERY recently. It certainly was not going to be the numb |
|||||||
| 5532164 | 2010-01-18 23:53:11 | INSIGHT – GEORGIA/RUSSIA – Saak stirring up Caucasus militancy via TV? |
goodrich@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – GEORGIA/RUSSIA – Saak stirring up Caucasus militancy via TV? CODE: GE104 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Georgia SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Abkhaz & highly anti-Georgian (maintains his country’s independence) SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 SUGGESTED DISTRIBUTION: secure HANDLER: LaurenSo the Georgian government has launched a new TV station that is in the Russian language and will broadcast across the Caucasus. I should rather say that Saakashvili has launched this since the rumor in the media here is that he used his own cash to fund the project. Saakashvili is calling the project an “alternative” news station to Russian media in the region.The station will be called First Caucasian and is suppose to be broadcast across Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, parts of Ukraine and also into the Russian Caucasus. The theory of a Russian language station may seem lik |
|||||||
| 5540201 | 2009-07-07 15:59:42 | INSIGHTS – US Concession to Russia… |
goodrich@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHTS – US Concession to Russia…
Okay…. Here are the puzzle pieces from today in which we believe a From the Obama speech at the New Economic School in Moscow… “State sovereignty must be a cornerstone of international order. Just as |
|||||||
| 378429 | 2009-12-03 03:43:23 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | mefriedman@att.blackberry.net | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
What is more interesting perhaps, although not unexpected, is that in the mainland Chinese edition which is coming out soon they removed sections and paragraphs that were negative about China’s economy and talked about possible fragmentation and social unrest. In order to get it past the Chinese censors the publisher had to remove these references. Not really surprising. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:29:25 -0600 To: Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com> Cc: <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<george.friedman@stratfor.com>; Meredith Friedman<mfriedman@stratfor.com>; zhixing.zhang<zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com>; Antonia Colibasanu<colibasanu@stratfor.com> Subject: Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN8 |
|||||||
| 380227 | 2009-12-03 03:45:07 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | hughes@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
hahahaha. So the book just suddenly stops talking about China after 2030 with no explanation. Like we just forgot to mention it. I love censorship sometimes. Meredith Friedman wrote: What is more interesting perhaps, although not unexpected, is that in the mainland Chinese edition which is coming out soon they removed sections and paragraphs that were negative about China’s economy and talked about possible fragmentation and social unrest. In order to get it past the Chinese censors the publisher had to remove these references. Not really surprising. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Jennifer Richmond <richmond@stratfor.com> Date: Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:29:25 -0600 To: Marko Papic<marko.papic@stratfor.com> Cc: <secure@stratfor.com>; george friedman<george.friedman@stratf |
|||||||
| 384732 | 2009-12-03 03:49:23 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | reva.bhalla@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com mefriedman@att.blackberry.net george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
i also love how they took every opportunity to slam India when G barely even mentions INdia in the book On Dec 2, 2009, at 8:45 PM, Nate Hughes wrote: hahahaha. So the book just suddenly stops talking about China after 2030 with no explanation. Like we just forgot to mention it. I love censorship sometimes. Meredith Friedman wrote: What is more interesting perhaps, although not unexpected, is that in the mainland Chinese edition which is coming out soon they removed sections and paragraphs that were negative about China’s economy and talked about possible fragmentation and social unrest. In order to get it past the Chinese censors the publisher had to remove these references. Not really surprising. — Sent via BlackBerry from Cingular Wireless ———————————————————————- From: Jennifer Richmond <r |
|||||||
| 1548782 | 2010-06-30 19:16:37 | INSIGHT – POL/UKR/GEO/ARM/AZ – Clinton’s schedule |
michael.wilson@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| INSIGHT – POL/UKR/GEO/ARM/AZ – Clinton’s schedule CODE: GE111 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources in Washington SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Georgian Lobby head SOURCE RELIABILITY: B ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2 DISTRIBUTION: Secure HANDLER: Lauren ALL TIMES ARE TENTATIVE……… Thursday 7/1 DC-Ireland Local EDT 1000 1000 Wheels up Andrews en route Shannon, Ireland 2200 1700 Arrive Shannon, refuel 2330 1830 Wheels up Shannon en route KyivFriday 7/2 Kyiv (Kyiv = EDT +7) Local EDT 0515 2215(Thu) Arrive Kyiv, Ukraine 0550 2250(Thu) Arrive Intercontinental, Down-time 1400 0700 Depart Hotel 1415 0715 Open Strategic Partnership Commission w/FM Kostyantyn Gryshchenko (Spray at Top) 1440 0740 MEETS w/ FM Gryshchenko (Coverage TBD) 1530 0830 MEETS w/Presiden |
|||||||
| 1392145 | 2011-06-28 14:40:50 | Texas Border Operations Sector Assessment 24 June 2011 |
burton@stratfor.com | secure@stratfor.com | |||
| Texas Border Operations Sector Assessment 24 June 2011
The information contained in this email is considered confidential and |
|||||||
| 1674187 | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 | Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | goodrich@stratfor.com reva.bhalla@stratfor.com kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran As you can tell from the answer, they were very vague about it… “training Iranian dissidents ‘in other locations'”. Very coy about it. —– Original Message —– From: “Lauren Goodrich” <goodrich@stratfor.com> To: “Marko Papic” <marko.papic@stratfor.com> Cc: “secure” <secure@stratfor.com>, “Kamran Bokhari” <kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com>, “Reva Bhalla” <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com> Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 7:00:12 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central Subject: Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran So no real answer on their particular involvement in Iran situation. Marko Papic wrote: I have translated the email that leader of CANVAS sent to me on Iran. Most of it is just his musings on the revolution. He gets into some pretty tactical thoughts at the end, about what the revolutionary movement must now evolve into in order to be effective. Remember, these guys are expert revolutionaries, so he is getting into some pretty th |
|||||||
| 5540296 | 2009-07-28 15:31:30 | Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran |
goodrich@stratfor.com | bokhari@stratfor.com reva.bhalla@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran we already know they’re working with Iranians in Bahrain and Azerbaijan. Kamran Bokhari wrote: `In other locations’ means outside Iran? If so then they would have a heck of time getting in. If they are in country, then may god save them from the baseej.From: Marko Papic [mailto:marko.papic@stratfor.com] Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 8:29 AM To: Lauren Goodrich Cc: secure; Kamran Bokhari; Reva Bhalla Subject: Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On IranAs you can tell from the answer, they were very vague about it… “training Iranian dissidents ‘in other locations'”. Very coy about it. —– Original Message —– From: “Lauren Goodrich” <goodrich@stratfor.com> To: “Marko Papic” <marko.papic@stratfor.com> Cc: “secure” <secure@stratfor.com>, “Kamran Bokhari” <kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com>, “Reva Bhalla” <reva.bhalla@stratfor.com> Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2009 7:00:12 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canad |
|||||||
| 387843 | 2009-12-03 03:29:25 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | richmond@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
I saw that, and initially thought the same, but they also looked a lot at Mexico and Brazil – about the same as India. Nevertheless, I think it is an important note. They gave very little play to G’s China predictions – although did mention it once or twice. China was, however, mentioned in the last bit about G’s intentions more than in the first part. Marko Papic wrote: Note how much emphasis that article gave George’s forecasts on India. The bit on India most certainly did NOT dominate the book, and yet they spent the biggest paragraph on that part. That should tell you about what CCP are most worried about. —– Original Message —– From: “Jennifer Richmond” <richmond@stratfor.com> To: “Antonia Colibasanu” <colibasanu@stratfor.com> Cc: secure@stratfor.com, “george friedman” <george.friedman@stratfor.com>, “Meredith Friedman” <mfriedman@stratfor.com>, “zhixing.zha |
|||||||
| 1713795 | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 | Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] | marko.papic@stratfor.com | mfriedman@stratfor.com richmond@stratfor.com colibasanu@stratfor.com george.friedman@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89]
Note how much emphasis that article gave George’s forecasts on India. The bit on India most certainly did NOT dominate the book, and yet they spent the biggest paragraph on that part. That should tell you about what CCP are most worried about. —– Original Message —– From: “Jennifer Richmond” <richmond@stratfor.com> To: “Antonia Colibasanu” <colibasanu@stratfor.com> Cc: secure@stratfor.com, “george friedman” <george.friedman@stratfor.com>, “Meredith Friedman” <mfriedman@stratfor.com>, “zhixing.zhang” <zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com> Sent: Wednesday, December 2, 2009 11:26:36 AM GMT -06:00 US/Canada Central Subject: translation Re: [Fwd: INSIGHT – GEORGE’S BOOK IN CHINA – CN89] Zhixing rocks the casbah. Her translation is below. Thanks, ZZ. The most interesting part is the little commentary at the end musing on why George wrote the book, especially in relation to China. Mexico to Become W |
|||||||
| 1691583 | 1970-01-01 01:00:00 | INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran |
marko.papic@stratfor.com | reva.bhalla@stratfor.com kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran I have translated the email that leader of CANVAS sent to me on Iran. Most of it is just his musings on the revolution. He gets into some pretty tactical thoughts at the end, about what the revolutionary movement must now evolve into in order to be effective. Remember, these guys are expert revolutionaries, so he is getting into some pretty theoretical stuff on what is needed. However, he has opened communication with us on this and has given me contacts of CANVAS’s Middle East crew. He is asking for comments on his thoughts below and any questions we may have. So I am particularly forwarding this email to Reva and Kamran and want you guys to think of “what now” questions that I can send to CANVAS and their crew. PUBLICATION: If needed SOURCE: SR501 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder/Leader CANVAS (Serbian NGO for revolution export… ex-OTPOR) SOURCE RELIABILITY: 4 ITEM CREDIBILITY: A DISTRIBUTION: MESA SPECIA |
|||||||
| 5471733 | 2009-02-22 20:38:04 | INSIGHT – CSTO – changes & possible Az membership |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – CSTO – changes & possible Az membership CODE: RU127 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Russia (Military analyst; pro-Kremlin) SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren**ODKB = CSTO in Russian Russia has grown much more ambitious in strengthening ODKB, evolving it from the weak organization it has been throughout the 90s. The ODKB’s budget is being increased by a quarter. Out of the announced 15 thousand troops that will immediately be pulled in, 5 thousand will be kept in Russia, but ready to move when needed. They will be deployed near the Western border, around St. Petersburg (though there is a possibility this could be closer to the Baltic states border, if you catch my drift). The ODKB will have three realms of responsibility. One will be the western zone of Belarus-Russia, one southern zone of Russia-Armenia and the last in Central Asia, located in Tajikistan-Uzbekistan. The largest group will |
|||||||
| 5486648 | 2009-12-13 22:35:47 | INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View |
goodrich@stratfor.com | gfriedman@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View CODE: RU153 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Russia’s Defense Council (group of defense specialists from Ministry, Militaries & GRU) that report to Puty SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2 ITEM CREDIBILITY: high HANDLER: Lauren The Russian military reforms being signed in January are the first real reforms since Khrushchev. They are realistic and needed. All other “reforms” in the past few decades were either not implemented, made no sense or so on. This is the real-deal.The most important thing is for a new strategic thinking for both the military industrial sector and military. For the industrial sector-nuclear deterrent is the main focus. Russia knows that if it ever went into a real conflict outside of its former Soviet states that it would never use airstrikes or ground forces, so why train them to be able to do any of this? That is why its nuclear deterrent is the only t |
|||||||
| 5485527 | 2009-02-25 13:05:05 | INSIGHT – Russia still financially propping up states… |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – Russia still financially propping up states… CODE: RU127 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in the Moscow SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Mainly deals in military and policy deals in a thinktank close with Kremlin. Usually keeps his cards close to the chest and tells me things only when he wants to. SOURCES RELIABILITY: D (yes, his info may have truth, but I think the Kremlin wants us to know this… for a reason) ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: LaurenHit hard by the economic crisis, Russia nevertheless hopes to see its positions strengthened at the regional level, the Kremlin’s strategy being based on the fact that the situation in most CIS member countries is even worse than theirs. Extremely attentive to what is going on amongst its neighbors (a watchdog committee responsible for keeping an eye on the assets on sale of possible interest to Russian industrialists has been established within the Industrial Development ministry), Mosco |
|||||||
| 5486461 | 2009-03-13 12:48:55 | INSIGHT – RUSSIA/TURKEY – energy deals |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – RUSSIA/TURKEY – energy deals
CODE: RU105 Among the Turkish energy envoy that accompanied Gul, Gazprom struck an — |
|||||||
| 5529993 | 2009-07-01 11:06:06 | INSIGHT – AZERBAIJAN – finances and the Oil Fund |
goodrich@stratfor.com | kevin.stech@stratfor.com eugene.chausovsky@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – AZERBAIJAN – finances and the Oil Fund The State Oil Fund Chief, Israfil Mammadov & Executive Director Oil Investment Shahmar Movsumov:In speaking of broad geopolitics…Mr. Mammadov believes that Azerbaijan’s recent turn to Russia is the US and Turkey’s fault. The US and Turkey pushed an Armenian issue they did not understand. Azerbaijan is in a tough position because they really only have three directions for their energy: 1) Iran-which will not happen so long as the two countries are at a stand-off 2) through Georgia to Turkey, which Ankara is making increasingly difficult with its stand-off with Europe and attention to Armenia. 3) to Russia – which at the moment makes the most sense. Russia is the easiest of the options and is not making demands on Azerbaijan. This relationship was going to happen anyway as Azerbaijan expands its energy supplies. But Turkey and US made it imperative to happen now.Mr. Mammadov did not see this as |
|||||||
| 5426952 | 2009-07-28 14:00:12 | Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran |
goodrich@stratfor.com | reva.bhalla@stratfor.com marko.papic@stratfor.com kamran.bokhari@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – CANVAS: On Iran So no real answer on their particular involvement in Iran situation. Marko Papic wrote: I have translated the email that leader of CANVAS sent to me on Iran. Most of it is just his musings on the revolution. He gets into some pretty tactical thoughts at the end, about what the revolutionary movement must now evolve into in order to be effective. Remember, these guys are expert revolutionaries, so he is getting into some pretty theoretical stuff on what is needed. However, he has opened communication with us on this and has given me contacts of CANVAS’s Middle East crew. He is asking for comments on his thoughts below and any questions we may have. So I am particularly forwarding this email to Reva and Kamran and want you guys to think of “what now” questions that I can send to CANVAS and their crew. PUBLICATION: If needed SOURCE: SR501 ATTRIBUTION: N/A SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Founder/Leader CANVAS |
|||||||
| 5454948 | 2009-02-22 20:38:04 | [Eurasia] INSIGHT – CSTO – changes & possible Az membership |
goodrich@stratfor.com | eurasia@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| [Eurasia] INSIGHT – CSTO – changes & possible Az membership CODE: RU127 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: Stratfor sources in Russia (Military analyst; pro-Kremlin) SOURCES RELIABILITY: C ITEM CREDIBILITY: 3 SOURCE HANDLER: Lauren**ODKB = CSTO in Russian Russia has grown much more ambitious in strengthening ODKB, evolving it from the weak organization it has been throughout the 90s. The ODKB’s budget is being increased by a quarter. Out of the announced 15 thousand troops that will immediately be pulled in, 5 thousand will be kept in Russia, but ready to move when needed. They will be deployed near the Western border, around St. Petersburg (though there is a possibility this could be closer to the Baltic states border, if you catch my drift). The ODKB will have three realms of responsibility. One will be the western zone of Belarus-Russia, one southern zone of Russia-Armenia and the last in Central Asia, located in Tajikistan-Uzbekistan. The largest gr |
|||||||
| 5481594 | 2009-12-13 22:50:55 | Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View |
hughes@stratfor.com | gfriedman@stratfor.com goodrich@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View So how do they really feel about Estonia? Any sense from them about where the hold-ups were in terms of their industrial capacity and the nuclear deterrent? Probably unsourceable even if these guys were being more cooperative (and don’t burn currency with these guys on this question), but where in the manufacturing process they’re having the most trouble and where they’ve got excess capacity for the deterrent would be very interesting to know. (i.e. are they having trouble with rocket guidance systems but can crank out solid fuel stages fine or something like that…) Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE: RU153 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Russia’s Defense Council (group of defense specialists from Ministry, Militaries & GRU) that report to Puty SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2 ITEM CREDIBILITY: high HANDLER: Lauren The Russian military reforms being signed |
|||||||
| 5506785 | 2010-01-19 20:08:49 | INSIGHT – RUSSIA/CHINA – summary of military cooperation & competition |
goodrich@stratfor.com | zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com matthew.powers@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| INSIGHT – RUSSIA/CHINA – summary of military cooperation & competition CODE: RU153 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Russia’s Defense Council (group of defense specialists from Ministry, Militaries & GRU) that report to Puty SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2 ITEM CREDIBILITY: high HANDLER: Lauren[LG: first part of his email was blacked out, & there are blackouts throughout the text… some blackouts are pages long, some are ]A careful look at China’s military capability suggests there is little ground for either excessive optimism or alarmism – depending on the observer’s attitude to the country – about China’s status as a great military power.In 1991, China signed the first deals to buy modern Soviet weapons, including 24 Su-27 Flanker fighters and two of the Project 877EK (Kilo class) conventional submarines. This breakthrough was vitally important to China. It would not be an exaggeration to say that m |
|||||||
| 5531604 | 2009-12-13 22:55:25 | Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View |
goodrich@stratfor.com | gfriedman@stratfor.com hughes@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA – Strategic Military View man, Estonia was mentioned too much to me for my comfort. They really hate that country & are thinking about the future of needing to take care of it. I have my sights set on some nuclear deterrant specialists that were there that I’m going to try to follow up with. This is good guidance for me to start with with them. We’ll chat more about it this week when you’re in town. Nate Hughes wrote: So how do they really feel about Estonia? Any sense from them about where the hold-ups were in terms of their industrial capacity and the nuclear deterrent? Probably unsourceable even if these guys were being more cooperative (and don’t burn currency with these guys on this question), but where in the manufacturing process they’re having the most trouble and where they’ve got excess capacity for the deterrent would be very interesting to know. (i.e. are they having trouble with rocket guidance systems but |
|||||||
| 1413664 | 2010-01-20 03:37:49 | Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA/CHINA – summary of military cooperation & competition |
richmond@stratfor.com | goodrich@stratfor.com zhixing.zhang@stratfor.com robert.reinfrank@stratfor.com matthew.powers@stratfor.com secure@stratfor.com |
|||
| Re: INSIGHT – RUSSIA/CHINA – summary of military cooperation & competition This jives with our insight from test pilots in China that they have a really hard time building and certifying planes and not only do they not have the mechanical capabilities but they also don’t have a strong test pilot program. Some of these seems to be a basic lack of know-how and some of it seems to be about cutting corners. The latter explanation appears true from all insight I’ve received, but I find it so curious that they would not commit the money needed when developing significant military strength seems a priority. Lauren Goodrich wrote: CODE: RU153 PUBLICATION: yes ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR sources Moscow SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Russia’s Defense Council (group of defense specialists from Ministry, Militaries & GRU) that report to Puty SOURCE RELIABILITY: 2 ITEM CREDIBILITY: high HANDLER: Lauren[LG: first part of his email was blacked out, & the |
|||||||
